September OCR cut likely

http://www.interest.co.nzEcono... bring forward forecasts for first cut in official interest rates in nearly 5 yearsASB, BNZ, ANZ National and Westpac all now say September cut likelyANZ said June 5 cut a possibilityAll this follows very bad jobs dataWestpac said "Shockingly weak"BNZ said "as horrible as it looked"ASB called it a "shock plunge"ANZ said GDP may have contracted in March quarterAll are saying economy weakening much faster than everyone, including RBNZ expectedBut will RBNZ governor think the same wayHow worried is he about inflation?Very. Day before yesterday when asked about the economic situation, his first comment was to focus on decouplingHe is clearly watching Asia and Australia closely, where inflation is a problemInflation above target 7 of last 12 qtrsHow worried is he about growth?He has commented on tighter credit conditions here in recent weeksHe has talked about a slowdownBut you've got to rememberUnemployment is still 3.6%. Labour market is still tight as a drumImmigration is dropping and emigration to Australia is risingLabour force growth is falling, Ageing population, pressure on inflation.My bet is no rate cut until December

Channel: News & Politics
Uploaded: May 9, 2008 at 3:34 am
Author: ofInterestNZ

Length: 03:16
Rating: 4.50
Views: 156

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